The war in Iran has gone from being a distant conflict to a factor that directly affects what we pay at the pump. The latest spike in fuel prices... Oil and gas prices fall due to the US and Israeli offensive and the Iranian response It is already making itself known, or will do so in a matter of days, at Spanish and European gas pumps.
The concern is not just about the bill when filling up the tank. Rising energy prices often trigger a chain reaction. about freight transport, electricity, airline tickets, and ultimately, the cost of living and inflation. With the recent memory of the energy crisis following the invasion of Ukraine, authorities and consumers are keeping a wary eye on international markets.
Hormuz and the war in Iran: the global oil bottleneck…
At the center of this new upheaval is the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic passage between Iran and Oman through which a crucial part of the world's hydrocarbon trade passes. Around [number of] ships travel through this maritime strip daily. one-fifth of liquefied gas and about one-quarter of oil transported by sea, a large part of it destined for Europe and Asia.
The escalation of hostilities in the Middle East—with the joint US-Israeli operation to strike at the Iranian leadership and the Revolutionary Guard's attacks on Western oil tankers—has created an unprecedented scenario: Iran has announced a blockade of the strait, and numerous shipping companies have decided to avoid the area.Companies such as Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk, and Japanese and Indian firms have suspended transit, and it is estimated that Around 150 tankers could be immobilized in the region.
This de facto standstill and the fear that it will occur direct attacks against oil or gas infrastructure Risk premiums in energy markets have surged. Analysts indicate that until normalcy is restored in the Strait of Hormuz, upward pressure on oil and gas prices will remain constant.
Oil is getting more expensive and that price increase is being passed on to the pump…
The markets responded quickly. The price of Brent crude, the European benchmark, has once again surpassed [previous level]. $80 and has even exceeded $84 after increases that, in some sessions, have exceeded 7% or 8%. In over-the-counter (OTC) trading, increases of 10% have already been seen, with Brent around $80 and forecasts of reaching $100 if the crisis continues.
This price increase is already being felt in the prices paid by gas stations. The Spanish Confederation of Service Station Business Owners (CEEES) has received warnings of price increases of around 10-12 cents per liter in the cost of supply for this same week. Nacho Rabadán, its general manager, acknowledges that the stations can absorb part of the blow for a few days, but if the price increase continues «This will have to be passed on to the final price.».
La Organization of Consumers and Users (OCU) It also anticipates an increase. Its calculations suggest that, with Brent crude stabilized around $80, Gasoline and diesel could become more expensive by 8 to 10 cents per liter in the coming weeks.It wouldn't be the first time: in 2022, after the start of the war in Ukraine, the international rise in crude oil took barely ten days to be reflected at Spanish pumps.
Current prices and initial price increases at Spanish gas stations…
Statistics show a contained movement, although the trend changes rapidly after the latest attacks. According to data from the Ministry for Ecological Transition, the gasoline 95 The price of gasoline has risen from €1,47/l to €1,48/l in just one week, while diesel reflects similar increases. These initial figures only reflect the previous rise in crude oil prices, but new benchmarks in major cities like Madrid and Barcelona already place prices in a range between €1,58/l and €1,65/l for gasoline. conventional fuel.
Low-cost stations, which recently sold gasoline for €1,30/liter, are now reporting significant price jumps to €1,53/liter. At some points in the traditional network, the diesel price It is dangerously approaching €1,89/l, levels reminiscent of the historical highs of previous crises. This scenario generates a direct additional cost in the family savingssince filling an average 50-liter tank can now mean an extra expense of up to 12,50 euros compared to the rates recorded last month.
The situation is critical in Spain, where more than half of the mobile park They use diesel engines for daily commutes. With over 31 million vehicles on the road, including commercial vehicles, any sustained price increase impacts household budgets and logistics. Therefore, many drivers are looking for alternative fuels. efficient mobility or they compare rates in real time to mitigate the impact of this energy escalation that affects both unleaded gasoline and diesel.
What do consumers, the government, and employers expect?
The current uncertainty has prompted many drivers to refuel earlier to avoid future price increases, boosting interest in fuel. low-cost gas stationsFaced with rising fuel prices, alternatives such as public transport and electric vehicles are gaining traction as real savings solutions. The OCU (Spanish Consumers' Organization) warns about the feather and rocket effect, where the fuel price It rises quickly but falls slowly, recommending comparing rates between stations to alleviate the impact on the family economy.
From the Executive branch, the Minister of Economy assures that the Government is prepared to intervene if the price surge intensifies in the coming months. The evolution of gas and oil prices is being monitored in real time to curb speculative movements that could affect the economy. Inflation in SpainIf necessary, containment measures similar to those applied in previous crises will be considered, seeking to protect citizens' purchasing power against volatility. energy market internationally.
For its part, the logistics employers' association points out the legal obligation to pass on fuel price increases to final rates through adjustment clauses. This means that the increased cost of transport will directly impact the price of basic goods and consumer services. This situation underscores the need for a energy transition accelerated development that reduces dependence on fossil fuels, allowing companies to maintain their competitiveness and financial stability in the face of global geopolitical conflicts and unforeseen events.
Gas, electricity and flights: the cascading effect of rising crude oil prices…
The current crisis is not limited to crude oil, since the gas natural In Europe, prices have surged by up to 70% following the Strait of Hormuz blockade. On the benchmark TTF market, prices have climbed rapidly, exceeding €57/MWh in just a few days. This increase is a response to the shutdown announced by Qatar, a key supplier of liquefied energyThis generates a well-founded fear of prolonged cuts that could destabilize continental prices despite the strategic reserves accumulated for the coming months.
This price increase is directly passed on to the electric billGiven that combined cycle power plants typically set the marginal price of the system, analysts say that every euro increase in gas prices can double the cost of a megawatt-hour, although in Spain the impact could be less significant thanks to the... renewable energy Available. However, dependence on international markets continues to put pressure on electricity bills, forcing households and businesses to closely monitor the evolution of this geopolitical conflict.
The air transport sector is also suffering serious consequences, with routes between Europe and Asia quadrupling their original prices. Airlines are facing a drastic increase in aviation fuelThis, coupled with the grounding of fleets at strategic airports in the Middle East for security reasons, has led to a reduction in service. Combined with the high cost of kerosene, this significantly increases ticket prices, impacting the Global economy and limiting international mobility in a context of growing war and financial uncertainty.
Inflation, interest rates and risk for the Spanish and European economy…
The rebound in oil and gas prices is not a minor issue for the macroeconomy. The European Central Bank (ECB) has already acknowledged the rising cost of energy This will push inflation upward in the short term. Its chief economist, Philip Lane, explained that such a shock can also affect economic activity, depending on the duration and magnitude of the conflict.
Various analyses suggest that A 10% increase in the price of oil could add around 0,4 percentage points to inflationexcluding indirect effects. The eurozone was hovering around an annualized rate of 1,9%-2,3%, close to the ECB's target, but a prolonged energy price surge could force the central bank to postpone or soften interest rate cuts that many households took for granted.
For families with variable-rate mortgages, this scenario is not trivial. If inflation picks up, the ECB could keep interest rates high for longer or even tighten them, which would translate into Higher mortgage payments and less disposable incomeFurthermore, financial uncertainty often spills over into the stock market and business investment, with potential effects on employment and growth.
Spain: less dependent on Iran, but highly exposed to global prices…
Although Iran possesses 10% of the world's reserves, its exports are mainly destined for China, limiting the direct impact on European supply. Spain has reinforced its energy security Diversifying its suppliers with crude oil from the United States, Brazil, or Mexico, in addition to gas from Algeria. However, this physical autonomy does not protect the country from volatility in international crude oil markets, where global competition for barrel price It inevitably affects all Western economies.
The most optimistic scenario envisions a contained conflict where oil stabilizes around $75, allowing a controlled inflation in the eurozone. In this case, the impact on bills and fuel would be manageable for Spanish families and businesses. However, a swift de-escalation through diplomatic channels could return prices to levels of $65, minimizing any negative effects on economic growth and ensuring greater stability in the energy sector global.
Conversely, a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would drive crude oil above $100, triggering a supply crisis severe. This adverse situation would raise inflation by up to two additional points, drastically increasing gasoline prices and putting pressure on mortgages due to monetary policies. Faced with this risk of recession, the authorities are closely monitoring the energy transition and strategic reserves to cushion a possible shock that would seriously affect European household consumption.
Speculation, reservations, and calls for calm…
Industry associations assure that there is no risk of shortages in the short term thanks to available strategic reserves. They explain that the current price of gasoline It is primarily affected by the entry of speculators into international futures markets. This financial pressure, coupled with uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz, amplifies price increases and generates unnecessary tension that associations are trying to calm to prevent panic-driven mass refueling.
Globally, OPEC and Russia are considering increasing production by 200.000 barrels per day to curb the escalating price of oil. fossil fuelHowever, Iran's potential exit from the market complicates full compensation, as its production represents approximately 11% of the cartel. This geopolitical situation keeps energy markets on alert, closely monitoring any movements in extraction to stabilize supply and protect the european economy from external shocks.
This complex scenario of war and speculation directly impacts energy bills and household spending plans. The rise in raw material prices is already reflected in the displays at service stations, making the energy crisis This poses a real risk to inflation. Companies and central banks are monitoring the evolution of the conflict, aware that price controls will be crucial for maintaining financial stability in the coming months.